Higgins Lake · Houghton Lake · Lake St. Helens — waterfront vs. non-waterfront, by the numbers. Rolling 12-month data plus the April 2026 Roscommon County market pulse with ZIP-level deep dives.
Michigan's Crown Jewel — clearest water, highest waterfront premium in the Tri-Lakes
| Metric | 🌊 Waterfront · L12M | 🌲 Non-Waterfront · L12M |
|---|---|---|
| Closed Sales | 37 | 61 |
| Closed Volume | $31,928,550 | $14,742,050 |
| Median Closed Price | $800,000 | $215,000 |
| Average Closed Price | $862,933 | $241,672 |
| Median Days on Market | 61 days | 63 days |
| Median Sold-to-List | 96.39% | 97.78% |
| Median Price / Sq. Ft. | $472 | $164 |
| Share of Lake Closings | 37.8% (37 of 98) · 68.4% of Lake Dollars | |
| April 2026 Snapshot · Median | $900,000 (3 sales) | $190,000 (11 sales) |
| April 2026 · Sold-to-List | 90.69% | 98.18% |
⚠ Outlier Watch: L12M Higgins WF high: $2,495,000 (103.33% of list, 412 DOM — rare trophy transaction on Kennedy Trail). WF low: $190,550. Non-WF L12M high SP/OLP: 147.95% after 351 DOM — unusual pricing history, data edge case. April 2026 non-WF included $599,900 (10701 Eastridge Court).
The Market's Vibrant Hub — Michigan's largest inland lake
| Metric | 🌊 Waterfront · L12M | 🌲 Non-Waterfront · L12M |
|---|---|---|
| Closed Sales | 94 | 74 |
| Closed Volume | $37,931,003 | $14,554,364 |
| Median Closed Price | $395,000 | $171,000 |
| Average Closed Price | $403,521 | $196,680 |
| Median Days on Market | 68 days | 67.5 days |
| Median Sold-to-List | 96.31% | 97.45% |
| Median Price / Sq. Ft. | $285 | $145 |
| Share of Lake Closings | 56.0% (94 of 168) · 72.3% of Lake Dollars | |
| April 2026 Snapshot · Median | $291,950 (4 sales) | $217,000 (13 sales) |
| April 2026 · Sold-to-List | 97.03% | 93.68% |
⚠ Outlier Watch: L12M WF high: $1,250,000 at 104.5% of list (37-day close). WF low: $50,000. April 2026 WF high: $535,000 (3948 W Houghton Lake Drive — drove average above April median). Non-WF April low: $54,000 condo. SP/OLP at 121+ days averages 83.4% — meaningful discounting for stale inventory; average DOM in that cohort reaches 413 days.
Northern Michigan's Value Waterfront Play
| Metric | 🌊 Waterfront · L12M | 🌲 Non-Waterfront · L12M |
|---|---|---|
| Closed Sales | 9 | 18 |
| Closed Volume | $2,586,900 | $2,420,125 |
| Median Closed Price | $209,000 | $125,287 |
| Average Closed Price | $287,433 | $134,451 |
| Median Days on Market | 34 days | 67 days |
| Median Sold-to-List | 100.00% | 98.92% |
| Median Price / Sq. Ft. | $181 | $127 |
| Share of Lake Closings | 33.3% (9 of 27) · 51.7% of Lake Dollars | |
| April 2026 Snapshot · Median | $90,000 (1 sale — thin) | $203,750 (4 sales) |
| April 2026 · Sold-to-List | 100.00% | 95.25% |
⚠ Outlier Watch: L12M WF high: $599,000 (6855 Lakeview Blvd, 100% of list). L12M WF low: $90,000. Average is driven significantly above median by two Lakeview Boulevard premium properties — use median as the reliable St. Helen WF benchmark. Non-WF L12M: one closing at $25,000 (55.7% SP/OLP) represents the bottom of the range. April 2026 single WF closing should not be interpreted as a trend.
April showed a thinner, more selective rural resort market where buyer commitment slowed sharply, available inventory remained lean in most areas, and price behavior depended heavily on product mix. The county still reads seller-leaning on absorption at 2.97 months — but the pending pipeline is the warning light.
| Area | Apr Sold | YTD Sold | Apr Active | Apr Pending | Absorption | Apr Median $ | Apr Med DOM | SP/OLP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roscommon County | 29−3.3% | 96−10.3% | 139−15.8% | 17−66.7% | 2.97 | $220,000+7.6% | 43−20.4% | 95.09% |
| 48653 Roscommon / Higgins | 6−40.0% | 27−25.0% | 51−17.7% | 5−77.3% | 2.81 | $195,000−14.7% | 46−31.3% | 95.56% |
| 48629 Houghton Lake | 10flat YoY | 33flat YoY | 43−20.4% | 6−60.0% | 2.76 | $280,000+69.7% | 59+84.4% | 95.29% |
| 48651 Prudenville | 8flat YoY | 22+4.8% | 28−3.4% | 4−69.2% | 2.85 | $270,000+22.9% | 25−60.9% | 94.20% |
| 48656 St. Helen | 6+200% | 14+180% | 25−3.8% | 2−50.0% | 4.48 | $138,500+0.5% YoY | 44−30.2% | 98.72% |
Absorption: <3 months = seller-leaning · 3–6 months = balanced · >6 months = buyer-leaning. YoY = April 2026 vs. April 2025. St. Helen +200% and +180% are from a very low base (2 and 5 prior-year closings respectively). Sources: FlexMLS, RPR Market Trends, prepared May 4–7, 2026.
Seller-leaning by absorption, cooling hard by pipeline. April sales fell 40% and pending listings fell 77.3%, while active inventory fell 17.7%. April median dropped to $195,000, but average rose to $367,133 — signaling a mixed basket with higher-end activity pulling the average. Sellers need precision: scarcity exists, but not enough buyer urgency to forgive aggressive pricing.
Not weak — slower and more selective. Closings held flat at 10. Median sale price jumped 69.7% to $280,000. The caution is time: median DOM rose to 59 days and average DOM reached 77. Higher-priced product is selling, but buyers are taking longer to commit. The pending count fell 60%. Houghton Lake is still moving — just deliberately.
Cleanest April read in the county. Closed sales held at 8. Median climbed to $270,000 (+22.9% YoY). Median DOM compressed to 25 days — down 60.9% from a year ago. The $300k–$399k bracket drove activity. The right properties are moving fast. Best combined price-and-speed signal in the April package.
Needs careful interpretation — the base is small. April closings rose from 2 to 6, but pending listings were only 2 and new listings jumped 70%. Median was essentially flat at $138,500; a $530,000 high sale distorted the average. Absorption at 4.48 months is closest to balanced territory. Buyers may find negotiating room here that doesn't exist elsewhere.
The numbers to watch heading into the summer season.
County pending: 17 in April 2026 vs. 51 in April 2025. Every ZIP posted a 50–77% drop. This is the leading indicator for May–June closings.
Median sale price rose 69.7% to $280,000 while median DOM rose 84.4%. Higher-dollar sales are happening — but not effortlessly.
Median DOM fell 60.9% to 25 days while median price rose 22.9%. The cleanest combined price-and-speed signal in the April package.
New listings rose 70% while pending fell 50%. St. Helen sellers need to watch competition and buyer depth carefully heading into summer.
County active inventory fell 15.8% YoY; YTD active fell 23.3%. Low supply keeps absorption tight even as pending volume weakens.
Waterfront captures 70% of Tri-Lake dollars with only 48% of units. This ratio has been consistent for over 12 months. At Higgins, the premium expanded from 3.41× to 3.72× year-over-year — the market is differentiating more aggressively on frontage quality. At Houghton and St. Helens, the premium has held stable within 2–3 percentage points of prior readings.
County active inventory fell 15.8% and new listings fell 12.6%. That shortage keeps months of supply at 2.97 — even though pending volume collapsed 66.7%. Less supply is masking softer demand: those two forces are working in opposite directions. If inventory normalizes before buyer urgency recovers, absorption will deteriorate quickly.
Properties selling in 0–30 days achieve 96–100% of list across all three lakes. Properties crossing 120 days average 83–84% of original list — a 13–17 point penalty for overreach. The market is not forgiving overpriced listings the way it did during the 2021–2022 cycle. Price it right the first time, or plan on multiple reductions.
"April gives us a very honest Northern Michigan market read. This is not a collapsing market, and it is not a wide-open seller market either. Roscommon County still has lean inventory, and good homes are still selling — but buyers are showing more discipline. The biggest signal is not closed sales. The bigger signal is pending activity, which fell sharply across the county and all four core ZIPs. That tells sellers the market is becoming less forgiving. Price, presentation, condition, and timing matter more now than they did during the hotter cycle. For buyers, the opportunity is patience with stale listings — but decisiveness when the right property appears. Waterfront and resort properties remain their own lane, but even there, the property has to justify the number. The next 60 days matter. Sellers who want summer exposure should be positioned correctly now, not chasing the market later."
Waterfront Divide Section (L12M): FlexMLS Search Statistics exports generated May 5, 2026, covering approximately May 2025 – April 2026 for Higgins Lake, Houghton Lake, and Lake St. Helens, separated by waterfront and non-waterfront classification. Median and average metrics calculated on closed sales. Sold price per square foot calculated where square footage is available. SP/LP = sold price divided by final list price. SP/OLP = sold price divided by original list price. No data was removed or smoothed — outliers are flagged and interpreted.
April 2026 Market Pulse Section: FlexMLS/MLS residential reports and RPR Market Trends prepared May 4–7, 2026. Same-month comparison = April 2026 vs. April 2025. YTD = January 1 – April 30, 2026 vs. same 2025 period. Absorption thresholds: below 3 months = seller-leaning; 3–6 months = balanced; above 6 months = buyer-leaning. Land and multifamily excluded from primary residential read. MLS information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Each office is independently owned and operated.
Prepared by Corey Bohnsack, Associate Broker · NextHome – Up North · 989-745-1300 · corey@stilledwater.com