Q1 2026 Quarterly Market Report  ·  January–March 2026

The Great
Waterfront Divide

Roscommon County · Higgins Lake · Houghton Lake · Lake St. Helens — county snapshot, ZIP diagnostics, and lake-segment analysis. Updated quarterly.

$8.3M
Total Tri-Lake Volume Q1
52%
of Dollars = Waterfront
28
Total Closed Sales Q1
4.6×
Higgins WF Multiplier
7Waterfront Closings Q1
$4.31MWaterfront Volume Q1
21Non-WF Closings Q1
$3.99MNon-WF Volume Q1
1.91County Months of Supply
$175KCounty Median Sold Price

The Core Finding

Waterfront Still Commands
More Than Half the Dollars

First-quarter waterfront closings were thin across all three lakes — just 7 total sales — but those 7 deals captured 52% of the quarter's total closed dollar volume. The sample is seasonally small. The premium dynamic is structurally intact. Waterfront demand did not disappear in Q1. Waterfront inventory did.

52% WATERFRONT
Waterfront $4.31M
Non-Waterfront $3.99M
25%
Waterfront Share of Units
7 of 28 total closings in Q1 2026
52%
Waterfront Share of Dollars
$4.31M of $8.3M total tri-lake volume
1.91
County Months of Supply
Down from 2.89 — seller's market confirmed
Chapter 1 of 3

Higgins Lake

The Premium Retreat — Michigan's most prestigious inland lake

+$662,500
The Higgins Waterfront Premium
Median waterfront price is 4.63× the non-waterfront median
$845,000
vs. $182,500 non-waterfront median
Metric · Q1 2026🌊 Waterfront🌲 Non-Waterfront
Closed Sales28
Closed Volume$1,690,000$1,478,400
Median Closed Price$845,000$182,500
Average Days on Market56 days107 days
Sold-to-List-Price—*96.14%
Median Price / Sq. Ft.$766$132
Share of Lake Closings20% (2 of 10) · $1.69M of $3.17M lake total
Higgins waterfront produced only two first-quarter closings — a seasonally thin number that makes averages unreliable as broad-market proof. What those two sales do confirm: premium frontage on Higgins Lake still commands premium money. Median sold price per square foot reached $766, up from $492 in first-quarter 2025, and average days on market improved sharply from 139 to 56. The non-waterfront side moved more product this quarter (8 sales vs. 4 a year ago), but buyers pushed back on price — median dropped from $202,725 to $182,500 and average days stretched to 107. Higgins still rewards quality. Higgins still punishes aspirational pricing. Those two things haven't changed.

⚠ Outlier Watch: Q1 2025 Higgins waterfront included a $2.925M closing on Kennedy Trail that materially skewed last year's averages. That sale is excluded from Q1 2025 comparison figures cited above. Higgins non-waterfront STL data not reported separately for Q1 waterfront segment — reflected in ZIP-level 48653 figure (96.14%).

Chapter 2 of 3

Houghton Lake

The Market's Vibrant Hub — Michigan's largest inland lake

+$397,250
The Houghton Waterfront Premium
Median waterfront price is 3.27× the non-waterfront median
$572,250
vs. $175,000 non-waterfront median
Metric · Q1 2026🌊 Waterfront🌲 Non-Waterfront
Closed Sales49
Closed Volume$2,530,000$1,720,000
Median Closed Price$572,250$175,000
Median Days on Market95 days*95 days*
Sold-to-List-Price85.51%94.61%
Sold-to-Original-List85.51%92.12%
Share of Lake Closings31% (4 of 13) · $2.53M of $4.25M lake total
Houghton Lake waterfront produced a clear and important signal in Q1 2026: buyers are still showing up, but they're negotiating hard. Sales dropped from 13 to 4, volume fell from $4.71M to $2.53M, but median sold price rose to $572,250 — because the quarter concentrated into fewer, larger-ticket closings. The more important number is sold-to-list at 85.51%. That's a meaningful shift from 96.25% a year ago. Waterfront buyers in Q1 demanded a 14-15% discount off list price to close. That's not panic — that's leverage, and sellers who didn't recognize it sat. Non-waterfront held better: median price held steady at $175,000 (up slightly from $170,000) and supply compressed to 1.48 months — the tightest inventory reading in the Tri-Lake ZIP package this quarter.

⚠ Outlier Watch: Q1 2026 Houghton waterfront included a $990,000 closing which materially influenced averages on only 4 sales. Non-waterfront included a $485,000 closing that lifted average above median — median ($175,000) is the cleaner indicator. *DOM reflects 48629 ZIP aggregate; WF/non-WF DOM not reported separately in segment data.

Chapter 3 of 3

Lake St. Helens

The Accessible Getaway — thin Q1 sample, but non-waterfront pricing firmed

1 WF Closing
Lake St. Helens · Q1 2026 Waterfront Activity
Extremely thin sample — one sale, shared-private access, $90,000 · Insufficient for pricing conclusions
$203,750
Non-waterfront Q1 median — up from $140,000 in Q1 2025
Metric · Q1 2026🌊 Waterfront🌲 Non-Waterfront
Closed Sales1 †4
Closed Volume$90,000$795,500
Median Closed Price$90,000$203,750
Average Closed Price$90,000$198,875
Days on Market33 days61 median / 77 avg
Sold-to-List-Price100.00%95.72%
Share of Lake Closings20% (1 of 5) · 10.2% of Lake Dollars
Lake St. Helens is a small-sample market in the best of seasons — and first quarter is the thinnest time of year. One waterfront closing at $90,000 with shared-private lake access is not a pricing benchmark; it's a single transaction with limited market applicability. The non-waterfront side tells a more useful story: four closings, median sold price of $203,750 (up 45% from $140,000 a year ago), and median days on market of 61 versus 102 in Q1 2025. Fewer deals, but the deals that happened executed faster and at firmer prices. St. Helens remains the most accessible entry point in the Tri-Lake market — and the non-waterfront data suggests buyers who show up with realistic expectations are finding properties worth buying.

⚠ Outlier Watch: † The single Q1 2026 Lake St. Helens waterfront closing (6541 Clearbrook Drive, $90,000, closed Jan. 14) involved shared-private access — not direct deeded frontage. Per this report's methodology, shared access = non-waterfront. This sale is included here as reported by MLS; readers should treat the WF column for St. Helens Q1 as a data footnote, not a pricing benchmark.

Visual Summary

Q1 2026 Market Summary
Roscommon County & Lake Regions

Q1 2026 Quarterly Real Estate Market Summary — Roscommon County, Higgins Lake, Houghton Lake, Prudenville, St. Helen — prepared by Corey Bohnsack, Associate Broker, NextHome Up North
Houghton Lake at sunset Lake dock at sunset Northern Michigan Aerial Higgins Lake peninsula

Cross-Lake Read

Three Core Dynamics
Shaping Every Transaction

01 · THE FRONTAGE PREMIUM
Water access is the core driver of value across all three lakes
Waterfront captured 52% of total Tri-Lake dollar volume in Q1 2026 on just 25% of closings — a premium ratio that held even in the seasonally thinnest quarter of the year. Frontage quality, docking practicality, canal access, and year-round usability all determine where on the premium spectrum a given property lands.
02 · EACH LAKE HAS A CLEAR IDENTITY
Higgins, Houghton, and St. Helens each behave differently
Higgins shows the strongest per-square-foot premium — $766/sqft median in Q1 — but inventory was extremely thin. Houghton Lake delivered the most actionable Q1 story: buyers paid, but negotiated harder (85.51% sold-to-list). St. Helens non-waterfront surprised with firmer pricing and faster movement despite a thinner quarter.
03 · VALUE CLARITY CLOSES DEALS
Turn-key condition and honest pricing win faster, cleaner transactions
Buyers across all three lakes respond to transparent condition and realistic list prices. Winter readiness — mechanicals, insulation, plowing access, shoreline stability — carries increasing weight as more buyers plan year-round use.

Corey's Take

Strategic Guidance
for Buyers & Sellers

🏠 Seller Guidance — Q1 2026
🎯
Price to the Market, Not Above It
Houghton waterfront's 85.51% sold-to-list ratio in Q1 is the clearest data signal in this report. Buyers are patient, and they're negotiating. Sellers who launch at market-supported prices close. Sellers who launch aspirationally sit — and eventually give more ground than they would have at launch.
✨
Seasonality Is Real — Use It
First quarter is the thinnest part of the waterfront sales cycle. Sellers who have the flexibility to time a spring launch typically face a more active buyer pool. Q2 and Q3 historically produce higher waterfront volume and more competitive offer environments across all three lakes.
🤝
Inventory Is Your Ally
County months of supply sat at 1.91 in Q1 2026 — seller's market territory. Well-priced, well-presented listings still have the structural advantage. Don't let thin Q1 transaction counts be mistaken for soft demand. Supply stayed tight. Demand stayed present.
🔍 Buyer Guidance — Q1 2026
📅
Q1 Is the Best Window to Negotiate
Houghton waterfront closed at 85.51% of list price in Q1. Higgins non-waterfront sat at 107 average days on market. If you're buying waterfront and you're patient enough to work the off-season, Q1 is historically where the most negotiating room exists in this market.
🔬
Inspect with Discipline
Use rigorous inspections and realistic repair budgeting to validate value. In a thin Q1 market, comps are limited — inspection findings become more important in establishing legitimate price adjustments and protecting your position at closing.
⚖️
Know Which Lake Fits Your Strategy
St. Helens = most accessible non-waterfront entry point, with firmer Q1 pricing than expected. Houghton Lake = negotiating room exists on waterfront, but supply is tight and the window won't last. Higgins Lake = premium frontage still commands serious money — come prepared or come back later.

Download the Full Report

Q1 2026 Market Report — Slide Deck

Q1 2026 Market Summary — Full Slide Deck
Roscommon County · Higgins Lake · Houghton Lake · Lake St. Helens · Q1 2026 · PDF

Methodology & Definitions

Waterfront: Direct, deeded frontage on Higgins Lake, Houghton Lake, or Lake St. Helens, including navigable canals connected to the named lake. Shared access without direct frontage = non-waterfront.

Data source: Water Wonderland MLS closed-listings statistics exports and market summary reports. Q1 2026 period: January 1, 2026–March 31, 2026. Q1 2025 comparison data from matching prior-year MLS exports. County and ZIP-level data from MLS March 2026 market summary exports and RPR March 2026 snapshot.

Update cadence: This report is updated quarterly — Q1 (April), Q2 (July), Q3 (October), Q4 (January). Each quarterly report covers Roscommon County, the four primary ZIP codes, and lake-segment waterfront vs. non-waterfront analysis for Higgins Lake, Houghton Lake, and Lake St. Helens.

Information obtained from the MLS is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Prepared by Corey Bohnsack, Associate Broker, NextHome – Up North. License #6502431456. Each office is independently owned and operated.